In early April 2025, US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs that sent shockwaves through global trade networks. South Africa, alongside several key trading partners, was hit with a proposed 31% tariff on its exports to the US — a move that immediately alarmed stakeholders across major sectors of the economy.
How Trump Tariffs Impact South Africa
From citrus growers in the Western Cape to vehicle manufacturers in Gqeberha and East London, the news landed hard. South Africans raised an eyebrow no doubt when Trump claimed that Lesotho was a country “nobody had even heard of”, even though the US has an embassy in Lesotho and Trump’s very own golf shirts are in fact made there!
These Southern African industries have spent decades building export routes to the US, often under preferential terms like AGOA. Now, many face the prospect of sharply rising trade and import costs, squeezed margins, and eroding competitiveness in a vital market.
But then, a shift: just weeks after the initial announcement, the Trump administration declared a 90-day pause on the new ‘Trump tariffs’ — a tactical retreat that has offered some breathing room, though notably excluding China from the freeze. For South Africa, it was a welcome reprieve. But it was also a signal that trade relations with the US have now entered a new, unpredictable chapter.
This pause has done little to remove the underlying volatility. Less than three months into the Trump presidency, a wave of executive orders and policy changes has already upended the trade playbook. Trump tariffs have emerged not as long-term industrial strategy, but as fast-moving fiscal levers — raised and reversed in response to political pressure, global tensions, or the performance of financial markets.
Trump Tariffs Explained: Understand the Uncertainty
South Africa has been here before. During the apartheid-era policy of inward industrialization, high import tariffs initially fostered domestic manufacturing, but over time bred inefficiencies and stagnation. When those barriers came down in the 1990s as South Africa re-entered the global economy, many protected industries collapsed under the weight of global competition. The lesson? Tariffs can be double-edged — and if businesses build behind them without adapting, they risk becoming brittle.
Today’s most exposed sectors are clear. Citrus and table grapes — seasonal staples of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US — now hang in the balance. An estimated 6% of citrus exports could be affected if the tariffs return, disrupting rural economies reliant on US demand.
Meanwhile, the automotive industry, which exported over 24,000 vehicles to the US last year, is under fresh pressure. Tariffs on foreign vehicles and components have already increased under Section 232, and any new duties could pose a serious threat to South Africa’s status as a reliable exporter.
The negative impacts of global economic uncertainty can also jeopardize our platinum group metal and manganese exports (which make up a whopping 76% of exports to the US). Added to this uncertainty is the recent reversal of a 0.5% VAT increase and increasing instability in South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU).
Throw in talk of a global recession and these are indeed trying times to figure out the right way forward as a South African business with inextricable links to the global economy!
Trump Tariffs Chaos: ZA’s Opportunity
While the full fallout of Trump tariffs is still playing out, one thing is certain: businesses tied to US exports and global supply chains are in for a rocky ride. Yet amid all this Trump tariffs chaos, some businesses may prove more resilient — particularly those focused on domestic demand, local services, or industries less reliant on volatile export flows.
In this shifting landscape, South African entrepreneurs may want to turn their attention to sectors better insulated from global trade shocks.
So, which businesses might weather this storm more steadily? Let’s take a closer look at some promising, tariff-proof opportunities — and how you can find or buy into them with relative ease.
Tariff-Proof Industries to Invest in for 2025
If you're looking to invest or buy a business in South Africa in 2025, there are still sectors that might be more insulated from international trade drama — especially businesses focused on local services, regional markets, or low-import supply chains.
Here are a few types of businesses that could offer a relatively safer, more stable bet — even amid the turbulence.
Personal Services Businesses
South Africans will always want to look their best on payday (and wedding day) and ensure that their house is in order when friends come over to braai! From security installation to cleaning services and from bridal boutiques to beauty salons, personal service businesses rely on local customers, local labour, and minimal imported goods.
These businesses might be less affected by tariffs because their value isn't tied up in imported stock or fragile international relationships — it’s all about providing experiences and essentials directly to South African consumers.
Digital and Online Businesses
Whether it’s digital marketing agencies, web design firms, or e-learning platforms, businesses that live mostly online might avoid much of the tariff turbulence.
Since their products are virtual (websites, courses, digital ads), they don’t have to deal with fluctuating import costs, shipping delays, or volatile global supply chains. Plus, South Africa’s growing internet penetration and digital economy means local demand is set to rise.
Food and Beverage Businesses Using Local Supply Chains
Food businesses importing specialty ingredients might feel the pinch. But businesses sourcing locally — think farm-to-table cafes, bakeries, kasi butcheries — might actually benefit if imported food costs rise.
Consumers could increasingly turn to local produce, meat, and baked goods. If you can build relationships with nearby farmers and suppliers, your margins might even improve as imported competition becomes pricier.
From fast food franchises to food distribution companies, Mzansi has a wealth of opportunity if you know where to look.
Home Improvement and Repair Services
People still need plumbing, renovations, painting, and roofing — Trump tariff drama or not. In fact, during times of uncertainty, many homeowners prefer improving their existing homes rather than moving, which boosts demand for local contractors and service providers.
DIY weekends have become an important part of South African culture. These businesses might not rely heavily on imported goods if they work with domestic suppliers or source locally manufactured materials.
Health, Wellness, and Medical Services
Healthcare needs don’t slow down — and many health-related businesses source services and consumables locally. Think physiotherapy practices, wellness spas, optometrists, and general healthcare clinics. Even CBD care is suddenly a craze in South Africa – and not just for your pets with arthritis!
While medical devices might face some import cost pressures, the day-to-day operation of many small-to-medium clinics, care homes, and wellness centres relies more on people power than imported products.
Why Local Service Businesses Might Be A Smarter Bet
In a volatile global economy, businesses that are close to their customers, close to their supply chains, and able to pivot quickly have a real advantage.
Buying a business in a service-focused industry could mean lower exposure to exchange rate shocks, as well as more control over pricing, staffing, and marketing — without being at the mercy of global politics.
While no business is completely immune to economic shifts, these local sectors might well offer more stability in an uncertain world.
Buying Local: How to Get Started
Thinking about making your move? Whether you're looking for a stable franchise opportunity or an independent venture that feels more resilient in uncertain times, this is the moment to act with intent.
Start with research. Explore businesses in service-based sectors — from wellness to home services, local food to digital enterprises — and look at what’s already working in your community.
Next, register as a buyer or connect with a broker. Many specialist brokers have their finger on the pulse of local markets and often know about businesses that haven’t even gone public yet. They can help you match your budget and skillset to real, viable opportunities.
As you dig deeper, ask the right questions: How exposed is this business to global supply chain shocks? Could it run with more locally sourced inputs or domestic suppliers? What happens if another round of tariffs suddenly hits? A resilient business model will have built-in buffers — like diversified revenue streams, loyal local customers, or adaptable product lines.
And finally, plan for growth. No matter what business you buy, the real value is in what you do with it next. Could you improve operations, introduce online ordering, tap into new audiences, or franchise a successful model across regions? Think like a builder, not just a buyer.
Because here’s the truth: in a world shaken by Trump tariffs and shifting global alliances, the most successful entrepreneurs are the ones closest to their customers, confident in their core offering, and nimble enough to pivot when needed.
If South African citrus farmers and auto execs are rethinking their exports, maybe it’s your cue to invest closer to home. Even in turbulent times, good businesses don’t just survive — they lead. And the next one could be yours!
Still have questions or need help finding the right business? Reach out to us at [email protected] — we're here to help you navigate your next move with confidence.
FAQs
What tariffs has Trump announced for South Africa?
The Trump administration initially announced a 31% tariff on South African exports to the United States, including key sectors like citrus, vehicles, and textiles. A 90-day pause is currently in effect, but the tariffs could still be reinstated at short notice.
Why is Trump putting tariffs on South Africa?
The tariffs are part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to “rebalance” trade relationships and reduce the US trade deficit, targeting countries with perceived unfair advantages. South Africa, despite accounting for less than 0.5% of US imports, was included due to its trade surplus and geopolitical alignment with non-Western blocs.
When do Trump’s tariffs start?
The initial implementation date was set for 9 April 2025, but this was suspended under a temporary 90-day reprieve for most countries (excluding China). The final structure of the tariffs is still under negotiation, creating ongoing uncertainty for exporters.
What businesses in South Africa will be unaffected by tariffs?
Local service-based businesses — such as personal care, digital marketing, healthcare, and home improvement — are largely insulated from international trade tensions. These sectors rely on local demand and supply chains, making them less vulnerable to shifts in global tariff policy.
